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Rephrase abstract

- streamline first half
- add "on a grid"
- add note on predictive routing applications
- mention managerial findings and winning forecasting method
  in second half
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Alexander Hess 2020-10-09 14:48:29 +02:00
parent b76ddd0e2f
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@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ Emails:
\begin{abstract}
Meal delivery platforms like Uber Eats shape the landscape in cities around the world.
This paper addresses forecasting demand into the short-term future.
This paper addresses forecasting demand on a grid into the short-term future,
enabling, for example, predictive routing applications.
We propose an approach incorporating
both classical forecasting
and machine learning methods.
Model evaluation and selection is adapted to demand typical for such a platform
(i.e., intermittent with a double-seasonal pattern).
The results of an empirical study with a European meal delivery service show
that machine learning models become competitive
once the average daily demand passes a threshold.
As a main contribution, the paper explains
how a forecasting system must be set up
to enable predictive routing.
both classical forecasting and machine learning methods
and adapt model evaluation and selection to typical demand:
intermittent with a double-seasonal pattern.
An empirical study shows that
an exponential smoothing based method trained on past demand data alone
achieves optimal accuracy,
if at least two months are on record.
With only a shorter demand history,
machine learning methods and real-time data may improve prediction.
\end{abstract}
\begin{keyword}