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@ -10,8 +10,9 @@ Somewhat surprisingly, despite ML-based methods` popularity in both business
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and academia in recent years, we must conclude that classical forecasting
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methods suffice to reach the best accuracy in our study.
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There is one case where ML-based methods are competitive in our case study:
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In a high demand pixel, if only about four to six weeks of past data is
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available, the \textit{vrfr} model outperformed the classical ones.
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In a high demand pixel (defined as more than 25 orders per day on average),
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if only about four to six weeks of past data is available,
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the \textit{vrfr} model outperformed the classical ones.
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So, we recommend trying out ML-based methods in such scenarios.
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In addition, with the \textit{hsma} and \textit{hets} models being the overall
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winners, incorporating real-time data is not beneficial, in particular,
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@ -53,6 +54,8 @@ We emphasize that for the most part, our proposed forecasting system
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is calibrated automatically and no manual work by a data scientist is required.
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The only two parameters where assumptions need to be made are the pixel size
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and the time step.
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While they can only be optimized by the data scientist over time, the results in our
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empirical study suggest that a pixel size of $1~\text{km}^2$ and a time step of
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one hour are ideal.
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The results in our empirical study suggest
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that a pixel size of $1~\text{km}^2$ and a time step of one hour are ideal,
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which results in the optimal trade-off
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between signal strength and spatial-temporal resolution.
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Future research may explore adaptive grid-sizing depending on, for instance, demand density.
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