Update rendered version
- move tables to avoid half blank pages
This commit is contained in:
parent
3706dd44b7
commit
ea0f5edc62
2 changed files with 32 additions and 30 deletions
BIN
paper.pdf
BIN
paper.pdf
Binary file not shown.
|
@ -13,36 +13,6 @@ We labeled them "no", "low", "medium", and "high" demand pixels with
|
||||||
increasing ADD, and present the average MASE per cluster.
|
increasing ADD, and present the average MASE per cluster.
|
||||||
The $n$ do not vary significantly across the training horizons, which confirms
|
The $n$ do not vary significantly across the training horizons, which confirms
|
||||||
that the platform did not grow area-wise and is indeed in a steady-state.
|
that the platform did not grow area-wise and is indeed in a steady-state.
|
||||||
We use this table to answer \textbf{Q1} regarding the overall best methods
|
|
||||||
under different ADDs.
|
|
||||||
All result tables in the main text report MASEs calculated with all time
|
|
||||||
steps of a day.
|
|
||||||
In contrast, \ref{peak_results} shows the same tables with MASEs calculated
|
|
||||||
with time steps within peak times only (i.e., lunch from 12 pm to 2 pm and
|
|
||||||
dinner from 6 pm to 8 pm).
|
|
||||||
The differences lie mainly in the decimals of the individual MASE
|
|
||||||
averages while the ranks of the forecasting methods do not change except
|
|
||||||
in rare cases.
|
|
||||||
That shows that the presented accuracies are driven by the forecasting methods'
|
|
||||||
accuracies at peak times.
|
|
||||||
Intuitively, they all correctly predict zero demand for non-peak times.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Unsurprisingly, the best model for pixels without demand (i.e.,
|
|
||||||
$0 < \text{ADD} < 2.5$) is \textit{trivial}.
|
|
||||||
Whereas \textit{hsma} also adapts well, its performance is worse.
|
|
||||||
None of the more sophisticated models reaches a similar accuracy.
|
|
||||||
The intuition behind is that \textit{trivial} is the least distorted by the
|
|
||||||
relatively large proportion of noise given the low-count nature of the
|
|
||||||
time series.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
For low demand (i.e., $2.5 < \text{ADD} < 10$), there is also a clear
|
|
||||||
best-performing model, namely \textit{hsma}.
|
|
||||||
As the non-seasonal \textit{hses} reaches a similar accuracy as its
|
|
||||||
potentially seasonal generalization, the \textit{hets}, we conclude that
|
|
||||||
the seasonal pattern from weekdays is not yet strong enough to be
|
|
||||||
recognized in low demand pixels.
|
|
||||||
So, in the absence of seasonality, models that only model a trend part are
|
|
||||||
the least susceptible to the noise.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
\begin{center}
|
\begin{center}
|
||||||
\captionof{table}{Top-3 models by training weeks and average demand
|
\captionof{table}{Top-3 models by training weeks and average demand
|
||||||
|
@ -198,6 +168,38 @@ So, in the absence of seasonality, models that only model a trend part are
|
||||||
\hline
|
\hline
|
||||||
\end{tabular}
|
\end{tabular}
|
||||||
\end{center}
|
\end{center}
|
||||||
|
\
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We use this table to answer \textbf{Q1} regarding the overall best methods
|
||||||
|
under different ADDs.
|
||||||
|
All result tables in the main text report MASEs calculated with all time
|
||||||
|
steps of a day.
|
||||||
|
In contrast, \ref{peak_results} shows the same tables with MASEs calculated
|
||||||
|
with time steps within peak times only (i.e., lunch from 12 pm to 2 pm and
|
||||||
|
dinner from 6 pm to 8 pm).
|
||||||
|
The differences lie mainly in the decimals of the individual MASE
|
||||||
|
averages while the ranks of the forecasting methods do not change except
|
||||||
|
in rare cases.
|
||||||
|
That shows that the presented accuracies are driven by the forecasting methods'
|
||||||
|
accuracies at peak times.
|
||||||
|
Intuitively, they all correctly predict zero demand for non-peak times.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Unsurprisingly, the best model for pixels without demand (i.e.,
|
||||||
|
$0 < \text{ADD} < 2.5$) is \textit{trivial}.
|
||||||
|
Whereas \textit{hsma} also adapts well, its performance is worse.
|
||||||
|
None of the more sophisticated models reaches a similar accuracy.
|
||||||
|
The intuition behind is that \textit{trivial} is the least distorted by the
|
||||||
|
relatively large proportion of noise given the low-count nature of the
|
||||||
|
time series.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For low demand (i.e., $2.5 < \text{ADD} < 10$), there is also a clear
|
||||||
|
best-performing model, namely \textit{hsma}.
|
||||||
|
As the non-seasonal \textit{hses} reaches a similar accuracy as its
|
||||||
|
potentially seasonal generalization, the \textit{hets}, we conclude that
|
||||||
|
the seasonal pattern from weekdays is not yet strong enough to be
|
||||||
|
recognized in low demand pixels.
|
||||||
|
So, in the absence of seasonality, models that only model a trend part are
|
||||||
|
the least susceptible to the noise.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
For medium demand (i.e., $10 < \text{ADD} < 25$) and training horizons up to
|
For medium demand (i.e., $10 < \text{ADD} < 25$) and training horizons up to
|
||||||
six weeks, the best-performing models are the same as for low demand.
|
six weeks, the best-performing models are the same as for low demand.
|
||||||
|
|
Loading…
Reference in a new issue