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- move tables to avoid half blank pages
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@ -13,36 +13,6 @@ We labeled them "no", "low", "medium", and "high" demand pixels with
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increasing ADD, and present the average MASE per cluster.
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The $n$ do not vary significantly across the training horizons, which confirms
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that the platform did not grow area-wise and is indeed in a steady-state.
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We use this table to answer \textbf{Q1} regarding the overall best methods
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under different ADDs.
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All result tables in the main text report MASEs calculated with all time
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steps of a day.
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In contrast, \ref{peak_results} shows the same tables with MASEs calculated
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with time steps within peak times only (i.e., lunch from 12 pm to 2 pm and
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dinner from 6 pm to 8 pm).
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The differences lie mainly in the decimals of the individual MASE
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averages while the ranks of the forecasting methods do not change except
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in rare cases.
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That shows that the presented accuracies are driven by the forecasting methods'
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accuracies at peak times.
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Intuitively, they all correctly predict zero demand for non-peak times.
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Unsurprisingly, the best model for pixels without demand (i.e.,
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$0 < \text{ADD} < 2.5$) is \textit{trivial}.
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Whereas \textit{hsma} also adapts well, its performance is worse.
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None of the more sophisticated models reaches a similar accuracy.
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The intuition behind is that \textit{trivial} is the least distorted by the
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relatively large proportion of noise given the low-count nature of the
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time series.
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For low demand (i.e., $2.5 < \text{ADD} < 10$), there is also a clear
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best-performing model, namely \textit{hsma}.
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As the non-seasonal \textit{hses} reaches a similar accuracy as its
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potentially seasonal generalization, the \textit{hets}, we conclude that
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the seasonal pattern from weekdays is not yet strong enough to be
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recognized in low demand pixels.
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So, in the absence of seasonality, models that only model a trend part are
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the least susceptible to the noise.
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\begin{center}
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\captionof{table}{Top-3 models by training weeks and average demand
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@ -198,6 +168,38 @@ So, in the absence of seasonality, models that only model a trend part are
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\hline
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\end{tabular}
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\end{center}
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\
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We use this table to answer \textbf{Q1} regarding the overall best methods
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under different ADDs.
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All result tables in the main text report MASEs calculated with all time
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steps of a day.
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In contrast, \ref{peak_results} shows the same tables with MASEs calculated
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with time steps within peak times only (i.e., lunch from 12 pm to 2 pm and
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dinner from 6 pm to 8 pm).
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The differences lie mainly in the decimals of the individual MASE
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averages while the ranks of the forecasting methods do not change except
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in rare cases.
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That shows that the presented accuracies are driven by the forecasting methods'
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accuracies at peak times.
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Intuitively, they all correctly predict zero demand for non-peak times.
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Unsurprisingly, the best model for pixels without demand (i.e.,
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$0 < \text{ADD} < 2.5$) is \textit{trivial}.
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Whereas \textit{hsma} also adapts well, its performance is worse.
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None of the more sophisticated models reaches a similar accuracy.
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The intuition behind is that \textit{trivial} is the least distorted by the
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relatively large proportion of noise given the low-count nature of the
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time series.
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For low demand (i.e., $2.5 < \text{ADD} < 10$), there is also a clear
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best-performing model, namely \textit{hsma}.
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As the non-seasonal \textit{hses} reaches a similar accuracy as its
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potentially seasonal generalization, the \textit{hets}, we conclude that
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the seasonal pattern from weekdays is not yet strong enough to be
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recognized in low demand pixels.
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So, in the absence of seasonality, models that only model a trend part are
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the least susceptible to the noise.
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For medium demand (i.e., $10 < \text{ADD} < 25$) and training horizons up to
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six weeks, the best-performing models are the same as for low demand.
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