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5 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
cb7611d587
Add OrderHistory.avg_daily_demand()
- the method calculates the number of daily `Order`s in a `Pixel`
  withing the `train_horizon` preceding the `predict_day`
2021-02-01 21:50:42 +01:00
67cd58cf16
Add urban_meal_delivery.forecasts.models sub-package
- `*Model`s use the `methods.*.predict()` functions to predict demand
  given an order time series generated by `timify.OrderHistory`
- `models.base.ForecastingModelABC` unifies how all `*Model`s work
  and implements a caching strategy
- implement three `*Model`s for tactical forecasting, based on the
  hets, varima, and rtarima models described in the first research paper
- add overall documentation for `urban_meal_delivery.forecasts` package
- move the fixtures in `tests.forecasts.timify.conftest` to
  `tests.forecasts.conftest` and adjust the horizon of the test horizon
  from two to three weeks
2021-02-01 20:39:52 +01:00
b8952213d8
Add extrapolate_season.predict() function
- the function implements a forecasting "method" similar to the
  seasonal naive method
  => instead of simply taking the last observation given a seasonal lag,
     it linearly extrapolates all observations of the same seasonal lag
     from the past into the future; conceptually, it is like the
     seasonal naive method with built-in smoothing
- the function is tested just like the `arima.predict()` and
  `ets.predict()` functions
  + rename the `tests.forecasts.methods.test_ts_methods` module
    into `tests.forecasts.methods.test_predictions`
- re-organize some constants in the `tests` package
- streamline some docstrings
2021-02-01 11:32:10 +01:00
7b824a4a12
Shorten a couple of names
- rename "total_orders" columns into "n_orders"
- rename `.make_*_time_series()` methods into `.make_*_ts()`
2021-01-31 20:20:55 +01:00
64482f48d0
Add wrappers for R's "arima" and "ets" functions 2021-01-20 13:06:32 +01:00