Create tactical demand forecasts
- the first notebook runs the tactical-forecasts command - the second notebook describes the tactical demand forecasting process + demand aggregation on a per-pixel level + time series generation: horizontal, vertical, and real-time time series + STL decomposition into seasonal, trend, and residual components + choosing the most promising forecasting model + predicting demand with various models - fix where to re-start the forecasting process after it was interrupted - enable the heuristic for choosing the most promising model to also work for 7 training weeks
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5 changed files with 3480 additions and 4 deletions
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@ -105,7 +105,12 @@ def tactical_heuristic( # noqa:C901,WPS213,WPS216,WPS231
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# Continue with forecasting on the day the last prediction was made ...
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last_predict_at = ( # noqa:ECE001
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db.session.query(func.max(db.Forecast.start_at))
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.join(db.Pixel, db.Forecast.pixel_id == db.Pixel.id)
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.join(db.Grid, db.Pixel.grid_id == db.Grid.id)
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.filter(db.Forecast.pixel == pixel)
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.filter(db.Grid.side_length == side_length)
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.filter(db.Forecast.time_step == time_step)
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.filter(db.Forecast.train_horizon == train_horizon)
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.first()
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)[0]
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# ... or start `train_horizon` weeks after the first `Order`
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